Monday, July 9, 2018

Dinesh Kamath's Editorial 'The U.S.-China trade war will affect others too' that was published in Newsband


The U.S.-China trade war will affect others too
The United States and China implemented a tariff of 25% on imports worth $34 billion. This is the biggest trade war in economic history. It has the potential to cause some significant damage to the world economy. U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to possibly tax all Chinese imports into the U.S. China has responded by targeting American exports - a move that could cause job losses in American states that accommodate Mr. Trump’s voter base. Other major U.S. trading partners such as the European Union, Mexico, and Canada have also slapped retaliatory tariffs on various U.S. goods.
In a globalised world, no country can hope to impose tariffs without affecting its own economic interests. So both the U.S. and China are doing no good to their own economic fortunes by engaging in this tit-for-tat tariff battle. The ongoing trade war also threatens the rules-based global trade order. 11 Asia-Pacific countries went ahead to sign a trans-Pacific trade deal while leaving out the U.S., which had pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in early 2017. If global trade tensions continues, countries might resort to other destructive measures such as devaluing their currencies to support domestic exporters.
The current retaliatory trade war between two large economies does not augur well while the sluggish growth affects the world as a whole. In a largely interdependent world let negotiations and dialogue resolve the various trade issues instead of the damaging and demeaning trade war for good of the nations.
Is US creating a fresh US national Zionism to reboost industrial - military complex? All these different actions could combine into a holocaust, coupled with tremendous pressures of refugee problems, of a new economic disaster, unseen in human history.
USA has taken a calculated risk by taking a decision of imposing import duties. It will be worth watching how further developments take place in this trade war mainly with China. It may be true that no one wins in trade wars. Trade wars become inevitable when a country like Communist China poses a threat to local manufacturers and cannot be deterred by negotiations. Is it not true that during last two decades or so China has used free trade policies very cleverly to increase exports and rapidly expand its manufacturing capabilities? At the same time, China has used its opaque systems to devise a strategy which has enabled it to restrict imports. Is it true that on account of Communist China’s invisible subsidies to its manufacturing sector, democratic countries like USA, India and many EU countries are at a disadvantage when they trade with China? All democratic countries must join hands so that they can defeat China in its game of subsidised exports.
The nasty tariff war has started between major powers which is not conducive to the global economy and specifically for developing countries. Sudden imposition of tariffs will affect the concerned countries and will mute industries and lead to heavy job loss on market contraction. Already there is global economic contraction and now it will get deepened with further chronic effects. If China loses market like this its endeavour to take number one rank as global monitor will be in vain.
The Bank of England has estimated that if this trade war continues to build up, it will cost the global economy about 2.5% of GDP over three years, Britain 2% and the United States as much as 5%. Either President Trump is not receiving good economic advice, or he is choosing to ignore it. As pain builds up in America, it will transmit through the political system. China has seen losses in its stock market and currency. It needs to deal with serious problems at home, including deleveraging. However, will it have to turn the other cheek to America?

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