Dinesh Kamath's Editorial 'India might have to face huge challenges' that was published in Newsband

India might have to face huge challenges

The first Indian Ports Global Limited which has come up at Iran’s Chabahar and the takeover of operations of the Shahid Beheshti port is a milestone in India’s regional connectivity and trade game plan. Chabahar port opens up a permanent alternative route for trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia, given the hurdles in the direct route through

Pakistan. It gives India’s bilateral ties with Iran, a major oil supplier and potential trade market for India, a big fillip.

India, Afghanistan and Iran have decided to hold an international event in February 2019 to promote Chabahar. The Chabahar port has received a waiver from the U.S. sanctions on Iran for the moment, but these concessions could be withdrawn any time, given the constant upheaval in the administration. The possibility of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, after the pullout from Syria, will add to security concerns for Afghanistan and impact on the Chabahar route as well. With Chabahar, India has done well to keep a place in the intricate connectivity network of the region.

This is not a zero sum game. Additional connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia creates multiple options for land locked countries. We have already seen how Pakistan sought to turn Afghanistan into a vassal and forcibly turn it into “strategic depth”. But as for peaceful nation like India, we win simply by promoting economic development, connectivity, and freedom.

Why the US should object if this would give them an alternative route to Afghanistan to supply their troops if Pakistan does not play ball. Besides Pakistan has been unreliable with the counter terrorism and this alternative supply route will give them a better leverage to deal with them. Although Iran is also not on friendly terms with the US they

are more civilized and diplomatic to deal with if the safety of US personals or the development of Afghanistan is the primary objective.

The spoiler game Pakistan can play in Chabahar once Taliban gets upper hand in Afghanistan. Chabahar is strategically vital for India, but the port is also beneficial to Russia, China, Iran, and Central Asian countries for their trades. India should take these countries into confidence and apprise them about the threats posed by Taliban. If India is

able to convince these countries, they can spoil the Pakistan’s game. As for the USA, the way situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating, and America is pulling out some of their troops, they will not try to bring Chabahar in their sanction list in future. Also, as India has taken over port operation, the country will not back down to any sanction threat from the USA. For the moment, the greatest risk to Chahabar is not from the USA, but Pakistan and Taliban, or Pakistan, Taliban, and China. India needs to use all their strategies and channels to keep the port under our control and operational in future also.

India is wise to develop Chabahar as a multi-purpose project, not merely as an alternate route to Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan. The primary emphasis should be to benefit Iran and India bilateral trade.

The under construction export processing zone along with a plant to produce urea for export to India is the centre-piece of this cooperation. The worst case is if the Taliban takes over after the US withdraws and shuts India out of Afghanistan. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst should be India’s stance.

Hope this will manage little bit of our petrol price as well as development in Afghanistan. India should use this opportunity well to increase its Afganistan and Central Asia connectivity. Chabahar port connectivity will strengthen Iran-India relationship and Afghan trade.

India should develop Darwinian strength to adapt itself to environment, the harsh realities of competition and animosity. Even so, it will need the kind of logic and determination of Iran and the kind of patience and endurance of Afghanistan to keep India from falling prey to global politics.

In a more rational world, America / NATO would have been using Chabahar as a trouble free route to Afghanistan, not weighing whether the project should be sanctioned. Whatever the pressures, India should maintain a durable economic relationship with Iran, buying both oil and gas. We should not allow such an important relationship to be affected by whim and caprice.