Dinesh Kamath's Editorial 'A survey predicts victory of NDA' that was published in Newsband

A survey predicts victory of NDA

As per a survey, the ruling BJP and its NDA seem to enjoy a distinct advantage over its opponents. The national mood appears to be to give the ruling party/alliance a second term. The BJP itself seems well short of securing a majority on its own.

The SP-BSP combine in Uttar Pradesh is posing a stiff challenge to the BJP. The BJP is likely to lose a significant chunk of seats in this politically important State. While it may continue to do well in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and even Chhattisgarh,

The BJP could well make up part of this deficit it suffers in North and West through marginal gains in the East and Northeast. Its tally in the South is unlikely to see any visible improvement.

Possibly, the supporters of the non UPA opposition see a limited opportunity of the parties they support coming to power and this is reflected in their stand on a second chance for the BJP. In any case, this opens possibilities for the BJP in States like West Bengal and Odisha.

If one were to undertake a region-wise analysis, it is clear that the NDA appears to be doing extremely well in North, West and Central India. It is also catching up in the East and North East, though it is faring poorly in the South. While the NDA has made some gains in the South in the last one year, it has been unable to catch up with either the UPA or other regional parties in this region. South India is the only region where close to half the respondents (45%) believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction.

The BJP seems to be ahead of its opponents on account of the support it enjoys among critical social groups. It retains its lead among both upper castes and the OBCs. While it gets more support among the upper and middle income groups, its support among the low income group and the poor is not insignificant.

Young voters (below the age of 25) seem to be more enthusiastic in their support for the BJP.

The BJP, which a year ago appeared to have lost ground to the Congress in small towns and cities, appears to have made up the deficit

The farmers, among whom support for the party had declined last year are once again rallying around the BJP.

While close to half the Hindu respondents felt that the BJP should get another chance, more than half the Muslim respondents were against a second chance for the BJP.

Religious minorities continue to dislike Modi government; interestingly Sikhs and Christians are slightly more opposed to it than Muslims

It is political skills that would finally make and unmake the electoral fortunes of different parties.