BJP, JD(S) and Congress are main players in Karnataka elections
The Janata Dal (Secular) maintains equidistance from the BJP and Congress.
JD(S) is probably headed for a third-place finish in Karnataka. Its seats will count in a hung Assembly. The
party’s ‘secular’ outlook is the
plus point. But it had not hesitated to form a coalition government with the
Bharatiya Janata Party in 2006.
The support bases of the two parties are in different regions, with the
JD(S) confined to Mysuru and southern Karnataka where the Vokkaligas have a
strong presence. The BJP relies heavily on the Lingayat vote in north and
central Karnataka. The Congress remains the principal rival for both.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had played his politics by praising H.D. Deve Gowda and blaming Congress president Rahul Gandhi
for not showing the JD(S) leader enough respect. This proves that the BJP is
still willing to do business with the JD(S).
In constituencies where the fight is between the Congress and the JD(S),
the BJP, rather than finish a close third, would have the JD(S) win. But too much proximity to the BJP prior to
the election is not going to help the JD(S). The JD(S) has one other
difficulty: the rise of Siddaramaiah in the Congress. The Karnataka Chief
Minister was earlier a front-ranking leader of the JD(S), and his rebellion
remains a sore point with Gowda and his son. JD(S) will not be averse to
building bridges with a Congress without Mr. Siddaramaiah, even if only to
increase its bargaining position with the BJP. JDS will try to squeeze maximum from both parties.
The JD(S) will neither be the king nor the King maker this time around as
the people of Karnataka know the bargaining and blackmailing skills of Deve Gowda.
The BJP will get the absolute majority on its own and the JD(S) which is
confined to only a few places in Karnataka will end up third with not more than
30 seats. Voting for JDS means voting for Congress, since post election, both
Congress and JDS, according to their fans, might come together to enjoy power
and get prepared for 2019 general elections. Even in BBMP local election also,
both Congress and JDS joined hands.
Political leaders of India are proving off and on that politics makes
strange bed fellows. They seem to have lost all sense of propriety, scruple,
morality when it comes to grabbing power. Here, Gowda is not an exception. He
is fathoming the situation out just by sitting on the fence. Alliance building
is not based on morality but on political opportunism. People are taken for a
ride. They are hopeless spectators.
If the results produce hung assembly, small parties like JD(S) may stake
claim depending on the seats won by Congress. But if some electoral
manipulations succeed and the Hindutva forces come to power, the regional party
may become irrelevant and most of its rank and file may defect. Thus Machiavelli
would feel humbled by the current political strategists.
Deve Gowda might become irrelevant after this election. Some people do
not fine him a political force except that few disgruntled voters support him.
Ultimately it appears it is going to be Modi all the way. His track record of
development and cleanliness and absence of corruption will help him. Congress shows
sign of facing defeat owing to poor performance, corruption, killings of
journalists and activists, etc. Modi calling himself pradhan sevak instead of
pradhan mantra and this shows his humility and service to poor.
Regarding Modi's comment on Rahul's disrespect towards Deve Gowda, the Congress
have made mention of how Modi did not respond to Advani's namaste on a stage
and how he haughtily did not respond to the namastes of MPs in Parliament.
In all his interviews, CM Siddaramaiah projects a calm, competent
confidence. Somehow, it does not seem the facade professional politicians are
so adept at projecting. Father and son may not be required, after all.
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