Dinesh Kamath's Editorial 'India is torn between US and Russia' that was published in Newsband

India is torn between US and Russia

PM Modi’s visit to Sochi to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for a day-long “informal summit”, his Wuhan meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, are all aimed at resetting and rebalancing bilateral ties that have weakened over the past few years. It is clear that India is drifting closer to the U.S. and Russia to China. Modi wanted to ensure that India’s existing dependence on Russian military hardware, with orders for about $12 billion more in the pipeline, must not be jeopardised at any cost. These have been made more difficult by a new U.S. law that would hit India. Modi would want Putin that India will not bow to such pressure. Russia’s recent military exercises and helicopter sales to Pakistan as well as its outreach to the Afghan Taliban have been viewed with deep concern by India. But one doesn’t understand the need to create global instability by Donald Trump administration. India is obviously disturbed by this fact.

India is contemplating a turnaround from its earlier postures with world powers. The secrecy surrounding Modi’s dashing to Wuhan and Sochi is intriguing since he is already scheduled to meet both Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin at least twice in the next two months. India and China will cooperate in Afghanistan, while India and Russia will coordinate on the Indo-Pacific. But in the recent years, India’s ties with the U.S. and its allies, Europe, Japan and Australia, have strengthened considerably. With so much intricate foreign policies involved, it is doubtful whether aspirational PM waiting Rahul Gandhi can measure up to the standards of Modi?

The efforts of Modi are really very appreciable, even though there are issues between US and Russia, still India is patching up with both the countries and trying to satisfy both. This relationship will be very beneficial to India in long run. In the 50s, we tried to ride our own boat (NAM) along with a few other oarsmen, but it sprang big leaks though we continued to pretend riding that boat. Then, in the 60s thro' 80s, we also travelled the Soviet boat, a boat we were comfortable with because of our ideological leanings, though we had to board desperately that shunned American boat at a time of great crisis in 1962. Thus, until the 90s we had been on twin boats, NAM (though it was a sham) & Soviet, when both boats sank and we barely survived to swim ashore. On the other hand, our arch enemy, Pakistan, successfully demonstrated the twin-boat art when it continued its close relationship with China even while enjoying all the benefits of a US ally against Communism! Diplomacy is precisely such an art. In a completely disrupted world, an aspiring India should not be dogmatic but flexible. Our only aims are security and poverty-elimination, not high moral ground.

It is a timely warning to policymakers in South Block, whether in the MEA or the PMO. The US tilt in our foreign policy, visible from the earlier UPA years, was given an extra push by the Modi led NDA government. Sadly, it was out of touch with the changing global power dynamics. Challenging China's rise was our policy anchor to which US, QUAD and other subordinate formations were sought to be added. Trump coming on stage altered the whole scenario, given his behavior. Meanwhile we misread the growing newer relations between China, Russia and Pakistan and the significance of OBOR or BRI which unites them. Dependence on Russia draws the ire of Trump's sanctions. We seem to have hit a road block. It calls not for recalibration, but a fresh look at all aspects of the policy.

From the early fifties, under Jawaharlal Nehru, when entire European Nations and America shunned India, often expressing doubts about stability in India, it was Soviet Union whose leaders unconditionally offered full Support to India. That continued right throughout Nehru's period and later under Indira Gandhi, who initiated an excellent friendship treaty with the Soviets. The "problem" between India and Russia began when Rajeev Gandhi entered center stage, increasing during Narasimha Rao's time, becoming almost worst under Modi regime. This is because it had become clear that Russia was not supporting India but the Nehru-Gandhi family. Now that NAM to India has become rather irrelevant, India feels safer to be with US.