BJP might need as many allies as possible this time
The Bharatiya Janata Party will need to keep all its allies together. Its potential electoral
partners were the Shiv Sena and the Shiromani Akali Dal. But the Sena
mouthpiece Saamna is insisting that the Sena would fight the coming elections
alone. The Sena is eager to return to its pre-2014 status as the unquestioned
leader of the alliance. The Sena,
which began as a Marathi chauvinist party, took to Hindutva and allied with the
BJP in an attempt to widen its support base; True, the two parties need each other to retain power in Maharashtra,
but the relationship equations are unstable. BJP’s another senior ally, the
SAD, is also seen to be in decline.
The BJP will also need allies in the southern States if it is to make
significant gains in terms of seats. But potential allies are few, except
perhaps the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. With opposition parties uniting against it in several States, the BJP
will need all the allies possible.
Where political opportunism is becoming the creed of ruling parties it
will not be difficult to have coalition of parties for 2019 election. Coalition
of both NDA & UPA will be there. But for UPA coalition to fight incoming
danger of Fascism of BJP is just an eye wash to befool people. There is no
genuine concern for fighting Fascism but an opportunistic alliance to rule
& serve capitalists, businessmen and corporate houses. Horse trading has
started. Nationalism, patriotism, caste identity, communal politics will be
vote bank politics & people's issues will be sidelined for both NDA &
UPA.
The happenings that we see in the form of the BJP trying to notch up a
strong alliance, beginning with keeping intact the already formed alliance of
2014 - to counter the possibility of a "Grand Opposition alliance" -
shows that Indian democracy is functioning well... although we have a long way
to go. Hitherto, the BJP had been a bit arrogant - the 2014 "giant killing"
at the electoral levels having gone to its Leaders' head - and the entire BJP,
starting form PM down to the lowest level - were merely talking and doing
little to follow up on many concepts that were unleashed almost every day! Time
will tell, how the current situation would shape when elections finally arrive
and people are to vote
We know that all alliances are for accommodative convenience and that is
what they should be. But if opportunism becomes all pervasive, things get
complicated. BJP would like to have electoral alliances with regional parties,
though there are very few options right now. Former and present allies of BJP
think that BJP’s is a ‘sinking ship’. TDP has quit NDA on basis of this
perception and Shiv Sena too is in a similar mood. If BJP leaders feel that
without Shiv Sena, BJP cannot do well in Maharashtra, they may have to accept
many tough conditions of SS so that alliance remains unbroken. Question is
whether such conditions would be acceptable to BJP’s Central and State
leadership. Would BJP find itself without friends in Maharashtra? Uncertainty
looms large. We will have to wait and watch further developments.
After recent by-elections setbacks there is some discomfiture in BJP and
a realisation has dawned on it that the support of its allies is essential for
retaining power after next general elections. The BJP has to keep its allies in
good humour and Amit Shah’s visit to Mumbai and meeting with Shiv Sena chief
and subsequent meeting with Akali Dal leadership are steps in that direction. The
pre poll alliance with Akali dal is a foregone conclusion but it would not be
as easy with Shiv Sena which is asserting its preeminence in Maharashtra. The
results of last Maharashtra assembly elections have emboldened the BJP and
increased insecurities of Shiv Sena but BJP can ill afford to lose this old and
all weather ally.
BJP ought to face tough allies for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Shiv
Sena always want domination and Punjab partner is with dismal show. What BJP
ought to do is to tune up the States where it has sound footing and concentrate
on key issues unresolved at least to retain brand value.
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