Dinesh Kamath's Editorial 'BJP Versus Rest of the Political Parties' that was published in Newsband

BJP Versus Rest of the Political Parties

As far as Lok Sabha by-elections are concerned, Kairana in Uttar Pradesh evoked special interest. The opposition parties have come together against the Bharatiya Janata Party. The candidate of the Rashtriya Lok Dal, of the Jats, was a Muslim woman, Tabassum Hasan, who has won the support of a broad-based coalition, which include the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress. RLD had suffered an erosion in its support base after the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 involving Jats and Muslims. To try to win back the core constituency of Jats with a Muslim candidate was a bold strategy.

What should worry the BJP is what this portends for the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Instead of a communal polarisation, the BJP is faced with a political polarization - a forced coming-together of disparate parties.

It is a hard reality that no party in power at the Central Govt. has achieved fifty percent or above votes to form the govt. since independence however absolute majority the party in power might have. Actually, the minority Govt. has ruled the country in terms of percentage of votes. So, if the opposition can get united the BJP will lose its status of invincibility. We have experienced in 1989 that despite Congress being single largest party the united opposition formed the govt. and subsequently, that cocktail govt did not last long. Again we experienced in 1998 that BJP govt. fell despite being the single largest party and it came to power in 1999. In the upcoming election it might happen that BJP will fail to form the govt. in spite of being the single largest party. If there is no pre poll alliance then the single largest party should be allowed to run the country. In the election next year if the BJP is forcefully stayed out of power its chances of returning to power will brighten up.

BJP should project its achievements like Swachh Bharat, LPG gas connections to poor people, new IITs, highway development, rural road development, rural electrification etc and address the farmers’ problems immediately. This will give them a second chance. Communal polarisation will not help them in any way.

It is always good both at the states and central level to have strong ruling and opposition parties to have a good government for the people. But if two or three parties though opposed to each other join as so called alliance with the only purpose of bringing a sole majority party is not good for the people. BJP will not find it easy in many Lok Sabha constituencies in next year’s Lok Sabha election if in each State anti-BJP parties come together and offer a single candidate against BJP. One worries about scenario after next year’s LS election. Is it not a fact that regional parties do not have a common national economic or political agenda? Not one party has a pan-India presence. Hence, on many issues there are differences in approach and each party would be interested to serve its voters within each State. It is perfectly okay to make a united effort to defeat BJP. However, if so called Third or Federal front (mainly of regional parties) forms a govt in the Centre, it will be disastrous for our country’s economy and unity.

The recent by-elections results in UP, earlier in Phulpur and Gorakhpur and now in Kairana point to the fact that the opposition unity can pose a big threat to BJP in a state which voted overwhelmingly in its favour in previous Lok Sabha elections. If BJP fails to hold its ground in UP which sends eighty members to Lok Sabha, it will be very difficult rather impossible for it to secure majority of its own in next general elections due in less than a year now. Agreed that by-elections are not indicative of national mood but opposition parties particularly in Hindi heartland have realised that they can beat BJP only if they are united and this can upset the strategy and calculations of BJP. Assemby elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh due later this year would be very important for fortunes of BJP and opposition particularly Congress in the context on next general elections.