Friday, October 19, 2018

Dinesh Kamath's Editorial 'India’s economic fortunes depend on oil prices' that was published in Newsband


India’s economic fortunes depend on oil prices
India’s economic fortunes depends on the sharply fluctuating price of oil. Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged oil-producing countries to reduce the cost of energy in order to aid the global economy in its path towards recovery. Modi demanded the partial use of the rupee instead of the U.S. dollar to pay for oil. Well over 80% of its oil demand is being met through imports by India. Oil prices have risen by as much as 70% in rupee terms in the last one year.
There is an absence of significant rival suppliers in the global oil market willing to help out India. India’s policymakers now face the difficult task of safely steering the economy in the midst of multiple external headwinds. The rupee, which is down about 16% since the beginning of the year, doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of recovery either. All this will likely weigh negatively on the prospects of the Indian economy, the world’s fastest-growing, in the coming quarters.
Another long-term solution to the oil problem will be to increasingly tap into domestic sources of energy supply while simultaneously encouraging consumers to switch to green alternatives. This will require a stronger policy framework and implementation.
Policymakers should also be willing to think beyond just the next election if India’s over-reliance on oil is to come to an end for good.
The scientific community does need to solve the energy crisis issue urgently. All the economies have been facing energy crisis. There is an urgent need to discover cheaper and efficient alternate renewable sources of energy. If this issue is resolved the economies can prosper further.
Oil producing countries must reduce the price of the oil in order to aid the Global Economy.  OPEC will set oil price if it is in their interest. Diversification of energy sources is the only way to rein in oil prices. Aid comes out of another pocket.
Yes, a catch 22 situation for the developing countries like India: Our attempts to empower the poor and backward primarily through freebies and crutches of one kind or the other - and the state governments adding to the worries in similar ways - may be politically smart but must fail the test on economic principles. You cannot 'rob Peter to pay Paul' and find untenable justification. Poor quality governance, lack of courage to confront realities are beginning to show up.
Energy consumption in the form of petroleum for personal and public transport has been increasing; this is in addition to international anxieties--petroleum exporting countries ever in need/desire for more dollars/prices for their ware. India has in effect equated Development with increased production, sale and use of cars, scooters and trucks; and possibly trains and airplanes. Petroleum consumption and concomitant Economy distress problems including CAD is a part of cost escalation trends; failure to pursue regional self-sufficiency goals, fulfilling basic needs through reliance on local production and consumption. Instead reliance on long haul transport, dependence on Andhra rice and chillies in Karnataka, for example. Public transport has to be emphasised in city planning and road development; this should include decentralisation and relocation of industries. Indeed a reorientation in Capital deployment and Urbanisation; retention of capital in rural areas of India.
The constraint created on oil price is unsolvable at this juncture of increasing demand for oil both for industrial and transport purpose. OPEC are restricting production and refuse to work for free supply and will not concede for reducing prices and rupee acceptance. The way is to increase the domestic production and reduce the demand. The feasible way is to stop selling auto vehicles on hire purchase selling which are flooding the number of auto vehicles both for four wheeler and two wheelers and to reduce rationalised use of them will reduce the demand for oil. Otherwise petrol and diesel will be available through rationed supply.

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