Friday, May 4, 2012

Dinesh Kamath's Editorial (Property buyers should be careful) that was published in Newsband

Property buyers should be careful
There's no thumb rule to assess the genuine investment potential of a property. It will vary from place to place because the property appreciation dynamics will also involve other demand drivers, such as connectivity and employment generation.
Potential buyers usually have to contend with a sudden rise in prices the moment that an infrastructure project is announced in an area. To assess whether the high premium is justified, you should develop a specific projection with regards to demand, supply and financial viability.
Infrastructure projects, such as airports, result in an increase in employment opportunities in the logistics, hospitality and commercial sectors. Naturally, the demand for low-to-mid-income residential property increases because more people employed in these sectors will need to live in the vicinity. This leads to a rise in the demand for housing, which, in turn, assures a consistent rental income for the owners. However, the waiting period for returns can be long as most infrastructure projects take years to complete. So, you should be prepared to hang in for the long haul.
While infrastructure projects may lead to a rise in demand for low-to-mid-income housing, it could negatively impact the demand for high-end residential property. So, in case of prospective infrastructure projects like an airport or a Metro corridor, the profitability of property can take a beating due to the increased noise and crowding.
However, the biggest problem is that even though a project is announced, there's no guarantee that it will be implemented. A change in government or its policies could result in an unprecedented delay or complete stalling of the project. If this happens, there will be no takers for the project and the owners may find it difficult to sell their real estate investment.
For instance, Singur in West Bengal saw land rates escalating by nearly 500%, in 2006, when Tata Motors received permission to acquire land for its Nano car project. However, land rates crashed in 2008-9 after the project stalled and was subsequently shifted to Gujarat.
Half the infrastructure projects announced by the central government over the past few years have been delayed. Only 14 projects were running ahead of schedule, while 117 were on target.
Not all delays should lead to panic. An infra project can be held up for a variety of reasons, such as the filing of a public interest litigation or protests, like the one held by environmentalists when the Commonwealth Games Village was being constructed in Delhi.
What you need to evaluate is whether there is sufficient reason to believe that the project will be implemented. As long as there is, long-term investors can expect a healthy appreciation. Thus be very careful before buying a property at any place.

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