Dinesh Kamath's Editorial 'IMD’s rain forecast is optimistic' that was published in Newsband

IMD’s rain forecast is optimistic

India Meteorological Department says that the southwest monsoon will be “normal” after a short break. This comes as a relief. At the end of two months the total rainfall has met the criteria for ‘normality’.

In the case of Gujarat, it has been a story of both deficiency and heavy rainfall within the State. This rainy season has so far witnessed a lot of death and destruction. Roads and infrastructure have been destroyed. Thousands of people have had to shift to relief camps.

The rainfall patterns have major implications for agriculture and groundwater recharge as well. Water is the key determinant of India’s agricultural output. An accelerated programme to harness the monsoon is vital. State programmes must take all measures to expand surface water storage, launch more minor irrigation schemes, and improve the recharge of groundwater. Altered rainfall trends pose a new challenge.

The northern States benefit more from slow precipitation, while the south needs heavy showers for groundwater recharge. A future-ready approach should therefore focus on augmented storage and greater participation of the farming community in managing the vital resource.

The IMD has issued a “normal” outlook for August. Climate change is a reality. Look at NSW in Australia. Even dams are empty. On the other hand, wild fire in California has taken million acres. Can India be far away?

The thing is whenever the IMD sees a couple of clouds in the distance, it predicts 'normal monsoons'. But when the clouds disperse quickly, predictions of drought start to replace. There is a serious loophole in the model that is being used for forecast

It is high time for the Government to seriously pursue river interlinking projects. Indian rainfall is highly variable and follow rhythmic pattern. Unless the government gives the priority to assess such variations and remedial measures to counter them there is no use of hundreds of commissions reports -- a theoretical exercise. Practical exercises are critical to help farmers and drinking water. At the same time governments must give priorities to control pollution.

The expectation of normal rain by the IMD is giving relief on the south west monsoon and the just short rain on North East monsoon could be managed by carrying out intensive irrigation. But the flood caused on unpredictable rainfall is the natural hiccup preventing normal agriculture and cause damages to the civilian properties. Balancing the actual rainfall with the expected quantum is a must and sustaining the ground reality of agriculture being the gambling over the monsoon, it must be done with prevailing conditions in an effective way.