Karnataka election and 2019 Lok Sabha Poll
The Karnataka Assembly election might give some indication about what will happen in the 2019 Lok Sabha
poll. Elections are due later this year in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and
Rajasthan, but the Karnataka verdict could colour these too. Winning Karnataka
is essential for the BJP. It must prove that it has a presence in the south.
For the Congress, Karnataka is critical.
It is the only really large State where it is in power and the only one in the
south. A loss in Karnataka will be perceived as a serious setback to the
Congress.
With regional sentiments running high, the consolidation of the Hindu
vote is not happening in favour of the BJP; indeed, Mr. Siddaramaiah has
shrewdly and cynically fanned linguistic and caste emotions to paint the BJP as
a pro-Hindi party opposed to regional sentiments. The return of B.S.
Yeddyurappa to the party has increased the BJP’s vote-share. The Congress has
been given a handle to raise the corruption bogey given the cases he was
embroiled in. The one certainty about this election is that the Janata Dal
(Secular) will come in third; whether it is in a position to play king-maker in
a hung Assembly remains to be seen.
Siddaramaiah managed to keep the focus on Karnataka and prevent the
election from being transformed into a presidential-style national face-off
between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi. After
the results, there may be re-alignment of regional political forces to counter
right wing. The Congress may have to play second fiddle to the regional parties
to save itself if it loses badly.
Irrespective of whichever party wins/loses, we can be clear about one
fundamental aspect: Every Election, anywhere, irrespective of the overall
Socio-Economic conditions of the society, will tell us about the Brain-power of
the State/Region - and the people would get what they deserve. Let us wait to
witness that in Karnataka too... which would be known when counting is done in
a few days.
Some say that local elections do not reflect the mood of the people in a
general election as the issues they vote for are different. Others say they redraw
the political landscape at the national level. Two things are important. One is that BJP does not need to win this
election to stake its claim as a pan-India party, although it has ruled Karnataka before and it has a strong presence
there for well over a decade. On the other hand, it is the rapidly shrinking
INC that has to prove that it, under its new leader Rahul Gandhi, is still
relevant. Gandhi, in his first election as the supreme leader of the INC, must
win decisively, scraping through will not be good enough.
There are efforts being made to portray this election as a local one and
not Modi Vs. Gandhi. Karnataka elections are a sort of test for both Modi and Gandhi
and results will have a definite bearing on next general elections. These are
first elections for Rahul Gandhi after taking over the reins of Party fully
from Sonia Gandhi and as expected he has campaigned very extensively. If
Congress can retain Karnataka, it will be a big boost for him to take on BJP in
forthcoming state elections and next general elections and in case of defeat, people
and other opposition parties will doubt his abilities. For Modi, this is first
big challenge in non-Hindi speaking South and if BJP wins, it will provide a
foothold to it in Southern India. A defeat for BJP in Karnataka will make
things difficult for it in 2019 general elections.
Both the parties are alluring voters on religious, linguistic and
casteist ground and they are ready for a separate flag to the state. These
parties never think about the law and order problems that take place after such
type of division in our own society.
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