India, US and China
The inexorable rise of China and its ambition to be the leading global superpower and the US under Donald
Trump and his policies are worrying the whole world. Prime
Minister Narendra Modi had visited Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia before
visiting China. Indonesia was eager
to upgrade ties. In Singapore, Modi became the first Indian leader to speak at
the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, the region’s top security summit.
We should take care to see that China doesn't muscle its way into our
watery backyard, the Indian Ocean. China is constantly affirming its predominance in the South China Sea.
These views were indirectly expressed by Modi.
India signed a deal to jointly develop Indonesia’s Sabang port overlooking the western entrance to the
Straits of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest waterways. The port is deep
enough to allow submarine access. If
India really seeks military access to the strategic island of Sabang, it might
wrongfully entrap itself into a strategic competition with China. India and
Indonesia have also agreed to improve connectivity between Port Blair and
Sabang.
US Defence Secretary James Mattis saluted India as the “fulcrum” of
regional security against Chinese expansionism. But Modi was careful not to provoke
the Chinese. He made a not-so-subtle reference to China’s Belt & Road
Initiative and he also tried to please China by saying that Asia and the world
will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and
confidence, sensitive to each other’s interests.
Modi did express the fear of many countries in the world by referring to fickle US foreign policy and realisation of
China’s clout. Modi showed his diplomacy by talking about developing a wise
India-China relationship and by not failing to mention the emerging
protectionism (an euphemism for Trump's trade practices).
Modi’s remarks at an important venue devoted to strategic security of
Asia are naturally welcomed by China. However, China must also have noted the
strong emphasis by Modi on several other things that directly concern her,
namely, rules-based resolution of maritime disputes, freedom of navigation,
unimpeded commerce, impossible burden of debt on small nations in the garb of
infrastructure, respect for other nation's sovereignty while developing
infrastructure & commerce. These were direct attacks on China’s position in
Indo-China Sea, CPEC & BRI. This is how India must play realpolitik, not by
reviving a NAM that could turn out to oppose only one bloc as it used to be.
Modi ought to balance his act in such a way that India is not earning
dissatisfaction from super powers like China and US. China wants control on
South China Ocean and deny the rights of partner countries. It has an ambition
to use watery yards of Indian Ocean and maintain incessant disputes on borders
with India. At the same time China shows smiling face with India and US in
dumping its products. Nevertheless US wants to seclude it from the global
monitor role and cancel its role in vital international agreements. At this
juncture India cannot move against the super powers and it must have a friendly
move with nearing countries. Hence Modi’s visit to Singapore, Malaysia and
Indonesia to develop goodwill was good. At the same time a cautious diplomacy
with super powers is the order and never go for apparent controversy and be
concrete on border issues.
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