Why ruling parties normally
win elections
Ruling parties
have an advantage in elections. The voters
just don’t feel like offending those in
power or encouraging those in the Opposition. Hence most of the time the surprises, if any, are limited to the
margins of victory, and who came second.
If there is one
running pattern in all these results, it is that the ruling party is always
tough to beat. Over the last two decades and more, the Election Commission of
India has done a lot to limit the advantages of incumbency in elections. The
model code of conduct places restrictions on the government initiating welfare
schemes and development projects in a constituency while going to the polls.
But voters know they would be rewarded later if they vote for the ruling party.
Generally elections
are pulse check of the ruling government's performance. Nowadays the ruling
party takes up this matter as prestige issue and spends lakhs and crores of
rupees as a face saving measure to gather votes.
There are
instances of ruling parties defeated in elections. But these instances are few.
One of the issues
in elections is partial enrollment of voters. Election Commission should
publish what % of eligible voters it is covering. Out of those enrolled, and
valid/living voters only, part of them vote. Again the middle classes are
dis-enfranchized due to incomplete rolls and their own apathy. All this makes
it easy to push populist schemes and win elections unless there is a wave. As
Abraham Lincoln said "You cannot fool, all people all the time". For
that to happen 100% should be on rolls, and 100% should be persuaded to vote.
It is true that by
and large any election in a State normally shows that the ruling party wins. It
does not mean that the voters are "satisfied"; but majority voters
feel, allowing the ruling party the benefit of doubt is a better option in the
current scenario than an outright change.
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